How Fuel Price Pulse is calculated

How reported price-change events become daily and weekly comparisons. Each qualifying forecourt contributes one equally weighted price.

  • Change eventsUsed as the source history
  • One valuePer station, fuel and day
  • 50p to 300pAccepted price range
  • Five stationsMinimum for grouped comparisons

From price changes to a fair daily average.

The source history records changes, not a fresh observation from every station every day. Fuel Price Pulse reconstructs a comparable daily position before calculating an average.

  1. 01

    Reconstruct the closing price

    For each station and fuel, the final genuine price event recorded that day becomes the closing value.

  2. 02

    Carry the value forward

    The last recorded price remains in place until a later price-change event replaces it. No change event does not mean the station had no price.

  3. 03

    Give each station one vote

    One closing value per qualifying station is averaged for each fuel. Frequent reporters cannot contribute extra observations and dominate the result.

  4. 04

    Compare the same stations

    Weekly and 30-day movements use only stations with a reconstructable price at both endpoints. The matched station count is published with the change.

Historical editions and current figures answer different questions.

The distinction matters when comparing a published weekly figure with the current Price Pulse dashboard.

Published weekly series

What did tracked forecourts charge at the close?

Historical prices are reconstructed from change events. A station and fuel enters the series from its first genuine event, and today's active status is not projected backwards.

  • End-of-day historical values
  • Like-for-like movement between endpoints
  • Edition fixed when published

Current public figures

What are recently updated active stations reporting now?

The current figures in the press room, publisher page, UK Fuel Price Index and Price Pulse cards share one calculation. Each open, active forecourt contributes its latest accepted price for the selected fuel, dated within the previous 14 days. Missing, implausible or old prices, closed sites and invalid locations are excluded.

Freshness is checked separately for each fuel. A station's address or other details being edited does not refresh its price. The latest included price timestamp and the last completed feed import describe different events; neither means every station reported a new price then.

  • Latest accepted current value
  • 14-day price freshness window
  • Changes as the source feed changes

Reading the Price Index trend.

The UK Fuel Price Index looks back over the stations eligible for its current figures. It reconstructs one closing price per station and fuel, carrying the last valid price forward through days with no change. A station enters from its first valid record. An invalid later record removes that value until another valid record arrives. Historical carried values do not expire after 14 days; that rule selects the current cohort.

The graph includes daily station counts and a partial point for today. Changes over 7 and 30 days use only stations with an accepted current price and a reconstructable price at the historical endpoint. They can differ from subtracting two full-cohort averages.

This current-cohort lookback can change when today's coverage changes. Frozen Price Pulse editions instead preserve the historical coverage, payload and method recorded at publication. Use a dated edition when an article needs a fixed reference.

Rules applied before a figure is published.

These checks keep obvious errors out and prevent very small groups from being presented as meaningful market comparisons.

01

Entry into the series

A station and fuel enters the historical series from its first genuine price-history event.

02

Valid price range

Prices below 50p or above 300p per litre are excluded as implausible.

03

Grouped comparisons

Retailer and postcode-area comparisons require at least five like-for-like stations.

04

Known closures

A dated permanent closure removes a station from that date onward when the source provides one.

What each published number means.

Headline average
The equal-station average across all qualifying stations at the weekly close.
Weekly change
The difference between the averages for stations present at both the current and previous weekly endpoint.
Comparison count
The number of stations in that matched, like-for-like movement calculation.
Station count
Reconstructable changed-price coverage, not proof that every station was manually checked that day.

Where the data cannot support a stronger claim.

Fuel Price Pulse keeps these limits visible so a reader can judge each comparison in context.

Station status history

The current schema does not contain a complete dated history of station activation and deactivation.

Current classifications

Brand, postcode-area and motorway labels use each station's current classification because dated dimension history is not yet stored.

No reporting heartbeat

A change event proves that a price changed. It does not prove the source checked and resubmitted an unchanged price that day.

Fuel withdrawal

A withdrawn fuel is not currently represented by a null history event, so its last price may carry forward until another trustworthy status signal is available.

Different industry measures

Industry bodies may publish sales-volume-weighted figures, which can differ from an equal-station average.

Changing group membership

Retailer, area and motorway groupings reflect the classification available when the edition is generated, subject to the limitation above.

Published editions do not move.

Each edition stores a frozen data payload and methodology version. Later station updates do not rewrite an older report. CSV and JSON downloads expose the figures and station counts used in that edition.

Want to check a figure?

Include the edition date, fuel and metric so the published payload can be checked directly.

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