Prediction Analytics
Performance metrics and transparency for the 7-day price prediction engine.
86.3%
across 95 daily national forecasts from the current engine
1.68p
magnitude error per prediction
790
active predictions
785
regional + grid predictions
Current National Predictions
Live 7-day price direction forecasts for each fuel type
Diesel
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Cheapest day: Monday. Weekly range: 2.6p. Tomorrow typically 2.6p less than today. Rising at 0.24p/day over 14 days (R²=0.87, ~+1.7p in 7 days)
Hvo
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The signals are too uncertain to recommend a buying time. Cheapest day: Monday. Weekly range: 2.0p. Tomorrow typically 2.0p less than today.
Petrol
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Cheapest day: Monday. Weekly range: 1.8p. Tomorrow typically 1.8p less than today. Rising at 0.18p/day over 14 days (R²=0.93, ~+1.2p in 7 days)
Premium_Diesel
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Cheapest day: Monday. Weekly range: 2.3p. Tomorrow typically 2.3p less than today. Rising at 0.30p/day over 14 days (R²=0.90, ~+2.1p in 7 days)
Premium_Petrol
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Cheapest day: Monday. Weekly range: 1.8p. Tomorrow typically 1.8p less than today. Rising at 0.19p/day over 14 days (R²=0.94, ~+1.3p in 7 days)
Accuracy Over Time
Daily direction accuracy from backtested predictions
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Predictions need 7 days before they can be evaluated
Predicted vs Actual
Each dot is one evaluated prediction (closer to diagonal = more accurate)
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Scatter data will appear once predictions have been backtested
Accuracy by Confidence
Do higher confidence predictions actually perform better?
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This chart requires evaluated predictions across confidence levels
Action Outcomes
How each recommendation type has performed
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Results will appear once predictions have been evaluated against actual prices
Action Distribution
Current prediction recommendations
Confidence Distribution
Signal strength across all predictions
Signal Weights
How each signal contributes to predictions
A robust regression over recent daily averages: which way prices are moving and how fast.
Weekly repricing rhythm. Live scoring caught this signal misfiring in mid-2026, so it carries a token weight while it is reworked.
Supermarkets reprice ahead of the major brands; a widening gap between the two often comes before a broader move.
Whether a local area has caught up with the national average yet. Local prices tend to follow it within a week or two.
Price changes travel geographically. This watches neighbouring areas for a move heading your way.
How long prices have held still. A long-frozen price is more likely to move soon, so this scales the engine's conviction.
Brent crude oil, in sterling. The only signal watching the outside world: pump prices follow the oil market with a lag of roughly four to eight days, measured against the site's own price history.
Accuracy by Fuel Type
Backtesting performance broken down by fuel
| Fuel Type | Evaluated | Correct | Accuracy | Avg Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diesel | 19 | 19 | 100.0% | 1.18p |
| Hvo | 19 | 14 | 73.7% | 2.69p |
| Petrol | 19 | 16 | 84.2% | 1.32p |
| Premium Diesel | 19 | 17 | 89.5% | 1.49p |
| Premium Petrol | 19 | 16 | 84.2% | 1.73p |
Data Foundation
Historical price data powering the prediction engine, and which signals have enough data to activate
Petrol (E10)
6/6 signals activeDiesel (B7)
6/6 signals activePremium Petrol (E5)
6/6 signals activePremium Diesel
6/6 signals activeHVO
6/6 signals activeHow the Predictions Work
Multi-Signal Analysis
7 signals (trend, seasonality, brand behaviour, national & regional momentum, price stickiness, and Brent crude oil) are computed and weighted. Several share the same underlying price history.
7-Day Horizon
Each prediction forecasts the direction and magnitude of price changes over the next 7 days for a specific fuel type and region.
Continuous Backtesting
A daily forecast is archived for each fuel and area. After 7 days, predicted and observed outcomes are compared using the same stations.
Graceful Degradation
Signals that lack sufficient data are automatically disabled. The confidence score describes signal quality and agreement; it is not a measured probability of being right.
Regional Granularity
Predictions run at national, postcode area, and geographic grid levels, capturing local price dynamics that differ from national trends.
Actionable Advice
Buying suggestions are withheld when the evidence is weak. Suggested windows are guidance from the seven-day forecast, rather than a measured best time to buy.
Engine Updates
How the prediction methodology has changed, and why
July 2026
Crude oil signal and a full reweighting
Brent crude oil joined the engine as its first external signal, after a study of the site's own price history showed pump prices follow the oil market with a lag of roughly four to eight days. Every archived prediction was then scored against what prices actually did, all signal weights were rebalanced against 2.5 million of those evaluations, and the day-of-week signal was cut to a token weight after the scoring showed it misfiring. Replay testing used the same months as the reweighting, so its results are development evidence and do not establish future accuracy.
Ongoing
These figures use daily national forecasts from the current engine over the most recent 90 days. Earlier engine versions are excluded. The same stations are compared at the forecast time and 7 days later; incomplete station coverage is left unscored. Results appear as forecasts mature. Overlapping seven-day forecasts are not independent trials, and direction accuracy does not measure savings from a buying suggestion.
Prediction Coverage
Predictions are computed across multiple geographic scales